Predictions for this coming Tuesday’s Boston city elections

Tuesday is primary / preliminary day, here in Boston.

The races on the ballot include mayor, district city councilor, and city-councilor at large.

Several of the district races are unopposed (shame, that).

In District 7, I predict incumbent Chuck Turner will come in first, but with less than 60% of the vote. 2nd-time candidate Carlos Henriquez will take more than 30% of the vote, with the other two candidates splitting the final 10%.

Here are the rest of my predictions (apologies to the Universal Hub for the cross-posting):

I think Mayor Tom Menino will end up with 60%. Expect much to be made of this, on Wednesday morning (mostly, by the Mayor’s PR team). While I don’t think greater-than 50% for Menino means he is invincible in November, getting less-than 50% means the bell’s tolling for him.

I think Sam Yoon will come in second! You’d think Mike Flaherty would but Sam seems to have a lot of momentum. It’s hard to tell who will get out the vote. Yoon received 2,000 fewer votes than Flaherty in the 2007 city council at large race (10% less), but that probably means nothing in this mayoral election. (Yoon received 8,000 fewer votes in the 2005 race (approx. 9%), but that was Yoon’s first run.)

I think, come November, more Boston voters would go for Flaherty in a match up against Menino, versus Yoon v. Menino, but maybe I don’t know anything?

My prediction?

Menino 56%
Yoon 19%
Flaherty 16%
(Kevin) McCrea 9%

City Council race?

Steve Murphy #1 (veteran city councilor, need someone who knows where they keep the keys)
Ayanna Pressley #2 (shortest term; runs for US Congress, in February)
John Connolly #3 (all-around good guy, and a new dad!)
Andy Kenneally #4
Tito Jackson #5 (Tito, quit foolin’)
Felix Arroyo Jr #6 (he was great as city councilor, last time … hey, wait a min!)
Tony Gonzalez #7 (wins ‘cuz he has the best signature)

In #8 it will be a cock-fight.

I’m guessing it will be Ego Ezedi, based on campaign organization and name recognition. He certainly wasn’t loved the other night at the South End candidates’ forum for his previously flip-floping on the BU Biolab, but few outside the South End may care.

I’m crossing my fingers for Sean “Burn the Fed” Ryan. His comment to me, earlier this week? “If I win the preliminary, I will win in November.” I’m willing to see if that’s possible!

Mr Ben Dougett? Will he be out taking down all those signs he stuck up around town, Wednesday morning? If not, feel free to bring them to him in person – he lives at Harbor Towers (although he’ll probably be on the 8:00 AM Nantucket ferry, is my bet).

I don’t think Robert Fortes or Scotland Willis have the votes. Scotland comes across as a very nice man. He seems smart. He’s a dad, so he knows what it’s like to be a parent in Boston. I’d like to see him go to the finals.

Bill Trabucco is nice (hi, Bill!). Don’t see it. No for Jean-Claude Sanon (gets points for his passion, though) or Hiep Quoc Nguyen, but he’s only 26 – he can run in two years. Or, just go for US Senate, everyone else is.